应用于澳大利亚南部盐碱化及干旱化的沿海平原的管理的地下水与农艺集成模型

应用于澳大利亚南部盐碱化及干旱化的沿海平原的管理的地下水与农艺集成模型(中文5500字,英文3300字)
摘要：
综合建模方法是用来探索旱盐地治理方法的一种办法．针对此项研究，提出了三种模型：地下水流数值模型，农艺模型与经济模型．地下水流数值模型为不同类型土地用水进行地下水位线预测，农艺模型根据表层地下水含盐量及季节性降水量为农作物及牧草产量进行定量．经济模型则是一种针对农业总收入，支出及贴现率的一种模型．将这三种模型综合起来，可为南澳大利亚海岸平原上１０５平方千米的农场提供关于地下水位线，农产品，农业收入的相关信息．此模型为未来二十年间提供了当前使用的，以及可供选择的多种土地管理方法．结果指出，深根四季草场的建立能够降低地下水回灌率及土地盐碱率，从而提高产量．然而，改良盐碱地支出巨大．与现行的土地管理方法相比，四季草场的利润极其微小，并对未来的农产品价格和贴现率依靠极大．本论文在此提供了一个处理农业管理中多种环境问题的整体性办法．并对其优缺点进行了讨论．1997年埃尔塞维尔科学出版社．
Integrated groundwater flow and agronomic modelling for management of dryland salinity of a coastal plain in southern Australia
Abstract
An integrated modeling approach’ was used to explore a range of options for land management to control dryland salinity. Three models were developed for this study: a numerical groundwater flow model which predicts groundwater levels for various land uses; agronomic models quantifying crop and pasture yield response to shallow saline watertables and seasonal rainfall; and a financial model of farm revenues, costs and discount rates. When combined, these provided information on groundwater levels, agricultural production, and farm incomes for a 105-km2 site on a coastal plain in southern Australia.The simulations included current as well as various alternative land management options for a 20-year period.The results indicated that the establishment of deep-rooted perennial pastures can reduce both rates of groundwater recharge,thereby enhancing productivity.However,the cost of reclaiming salinised land is high.Compraed with current land management practices,the economic benefit of perennial pasture is marginal,and depend strongly on future farm commodity prices and discount rates.The methodology described herein represents a holistic means of dealing with a variety of environmental problems of agricultural management.Its advantages and disadvantages are also discussed.1997 Elsevier Science B.V.