股市博弈论Stock Market Game Theory(中文8000字,英文5600字)
拉斯穆辛
前言
以道氏理论、波浪理论、形态分析理论等为代表的传统技术分析理论，从道琼斯和艾略特以来基本处于停滞不前的状态，虽然内容也在不断丰富，但基本上是在同一层次上变换形式，并没有什么质的突破。作者认为，造成这种情况的原因在于，传统的技术分析理论都隐含了一个有问题的理论前提，它们的研究思路本质上都是在把股市看做是一个不受参与者自身行为影响的客观系统，而没有考虑到人的操作对股市的影响。作为一种近似，这样处理可以给初级研究带来方便，也可以产生一批有价值的成果，但这种不准确的近似不利于对市场进行深入研究。市场由千千万万投资人构成，他们相互作用相互影响，形成一个密切关联相互影响不可分割的整体，每个人的操作都必然的影响着股市的运动，特别是当资金量比较大的时候对市场的影响更大。
在理论上，由于传统理论的近似比较粗略，不适合对股市运动规律进行深入研究，所以，有很多股市现象在传统理论中只能是知其然不知其所以然，无法给出合理的解释。如为什么波浪理论的时间之窗往往形成重要的关键点？为什么一定的K线组合可以作为买卖信号？这造成传统技术分析理论至今仍停留在原始的归纳总结阶段，不能上升到理论高度。这反过来又限制了对股市深层次规律的进一步概括总结，造成了技术分析研究的停滞不前。
在实践方面，如果只是做个股评家说说话不进行操作，那这种简化的研究是可以的；如果自己的资金比较少，对市场影响不大，这种近似也还问题不大；但如果是资金量比较大，或者使用与自己类似的操作方法的人比较多，那么用这种理论来指导操作就有比较大的问题。传统理论没有给出在资金量比较大时操作方法的理论指导。
Stock Market Game Theory
Rasmusen
Preface
To Dow theory, wave theory, such as morphological analysis, as represented by the traditional technical analysis theory, from the Dow Jones and Elliott at a standstill since the basic state, although the content has been rich, but essentially the same level the form of the transformation, there is no qualitative breakthrough. The author believes that the reasons for this situation lies in the fact that the traditional theory of technical analysis there are problems implied a theoretical premise, the nature of their research ideas are in the stock market as a participant in their own behavior is not affected objective system, and people do not take into account the impact of operations on the stock market. As an approximation, so that treatment can bring convenience to the primary research, but also can produce a number of valuable results, but this is not conducive to an accurate approximation of an in-depth study on the market. Market constituted by the tens of thousands of investors, the impact of their mutual interaction to form a mutual influence is closely related to an integral whole, and each person is bound to impact operations of the stock market movement, especially when times larger than the funds on the market a greater impact.
In theory, similar to the traditional theory of comparative rough, not suitable for movement of the stock market in-depth study, so a lot of stock in the traditional theory of the phenomenon can only be a know-I do not know their can not be given a reasonable explanation. Wave theory, such as why the window of time is often the key points? Why do some combination of K-line can be used as trading signals? This has resulted in the traditional theory of technical analysis are still in the original summary of the stage, can not rise to the theory of height. This, in turn, limits the deep-seated in the stock market further summary of the law, resulting in a technical analysis of the stagnation. |
