长沙市房地产周期波动研究

长沙市房地产周期波动研究(含选题审批表,任务书,开题报告,毕业论文14800字)
摘 要：房地产经济的增长和国民经济的波浪式前进一样，存在着波动，即房地产经济周期波动。而房地产业不但是国民经济发展的晴雨表，而且成为了国民经济的主要增长点，研究房地产的周期波动对国家的经济增长意义重大。
本文在学习借鉴经济周期理论和国内外现有房地产周期理论研究成果的基础上，从概念、理论出发，分析房地产市场周期波动各阶段特征及影响因素，在结合历史数据的基础上，通过对1996-2009的扩散指数分析，证实了长沙市房地产经济周期的存在，并总结了周期波动特征，提出了长沙市房地产市场持续、健康发展的建议。
关键词：房地产周期波动；扩散指数分析；长沙市；影响因素

Research on Real Estate Cyclical Fluctuations in Changsha City
Abstract：The growth of real estate economics is the same as the advance wave upon wave of the national economy, for there is a wave, that is to say, the real estate business waves in a period. As real estate economics is not only the barometer of national e economic development, but also the major growth of the national economy. Therefore, it is significant to the increase of national economy in studying the cyclic wave of real estate economics.
In this paper, on the basis of economic cycle theory and the achievements of real estate cycle theory home and abroad, the author analyses the cyclic wave features in different stages in the market of real estate from the perspective of concept and theory. Also, the author explores the statistics in 1996-2009, proves that the existing of the cyclic of real estate economic in Changsha, and summaries the features of cyclic swings. What’s more, some useful and essential suggestions are put forward to keep the real estate market in Changsha in constantly and healthily development.
Key words： Real estate cycle fluctuations; Proliferation index analysis; Changsha City; Influencing factors
 

目  录
摘要…………………………………………………………………………………1
关键词………………………………………………………………………………1
1前言………………………………………………………………………………2
2房地产周期理论……………………………………………………………………2
    2.1国外房地产周期波动理论研究动态……………………………………3
    2.2国内房地产周期波动理论研究动态………………………………………4
3长沙市房地产周期波动研究……………………………………………………5
    3.1长沙市房地产发展现状……………………………………………………5
    3.2 长沙市房地产周期指标确定及数据………………………………………6
        3.2.1长沙市国内生产总值（GDP）………………………………………6
        3.2.2长沙市人均可支配收入……………………………………………6
        3.2.3商品房销售价格（房地产价格类指标）…………………………8
        3.2.4商品房施工面积和商品房竣工面积（即房地产生产类指标）…8
        3.2.5商品房销售面积……………………………………………………8
        3.2.6房地产开发投资额和房地产企业实现利润总额…………………9
    3.3长沙市房地产周期分析…………………………………………………10
        3.3.1扩散指数分析……………………………………………………10
        3.3.2单个指标周期波动分析…………………………………………13
4长沙市房地产周期影响因素分析………………………………………………15
    4.1宏观经济因素对长沙市房地产周期波动的影响分析…………………15
  4.2政策因素对长沙市房地产周期波动的影……………………………16
5长沙市房地产稳定发展对策……………………………………………………17
    5.1实施合理的财政政策……………………………………………………17
 
  5.2实施稳健的金融政策…………………………………………………18
5.3 实施积极的房地产产业政策与措施……………………………………18
    5.4建设房地产业稳定发展的法制环境……………………………………19
6结论………………………………………………………………………………20
参考文献……………………………………………………………………………21
致谢…………………………………………………………………………………21