从外汇储备的视角来看我国流动性过剩问题

摘  要 
近几年，随着我国经济的快速发展和对外开放程度的不断加深，高额外汇储备与流动性过剩已成为我国经济发展过程中的两个突出问题。本文认为，过快的外汇储备增长必然会给我国的宏观经济调控带来一系列的问题，其中最突出的就是流动性过剩的失控问题。因此，在解决我国流动性过剩的问题中，如果我们只靠着一般的货币政策工具来进行调控，则存在较大的局限性。为了可以更好地进行调控并且使这些货币政策工具得到更有效的发挥，我们应该从外汇储备的视角出发来着手分析我国流动性过剩的问题。本文拟就外汇储备与货币供应量之间的关系，以及外汇储备增加对流动性过剩的影响程度等问题运用多种论证方法进行探讨，并通过原因导向分析，为我国对外贸易政策的调整提供相关的政策依据，从而缓解因外汇储备激增而导致的我国流动性过剩问题。 
关键词：外汇储备  流动性过剩  货币供应量  对外贸易政策

Analyzing the problem about Chinese Excess Liquidity from the aspect of foreign exchange reserves

Abstract
In recent years, with the rapid development of our country’s economy and opening up to the world, the problem of huge foreign exchange reserves and excess liquidity has emerged as a major issue in the progressing course of economy. The thesis maintains that the foreign exchange reserves overgrowth will bring about a series of problems to our country’s macroeconomic coordination, and the biggest worry of them is the excess liquidity is out of control. So if we only choose the common monetary policy instrument to control the excess liquidity, it will have considerably limitations. In order to making the common monetary policy instrument more effective, we shall undertake to analyze the problem of our country’s excess liquidity from the aspect of foreign exchange reserves. The thesis goes into the subject on what connection between the foreign exchange reserves and the money supply is, what the degree of influences of increasing foreign exchange reserves and excess liquidity, etc, by a few kinds of methods. And bases on the reason as a guide to provide related evidence for our country’s foreign trade policy. In this way, the problem of excess liquidity can be resolved.
Key words: Foreign exchange reserves  Excess liquidity   Money supply    
Foreign trade policy

目  录     24000字
摘要    I
Abstract    II
1引言    1
1.1研究背景    1
1.1.1我国流动性过剩的国际背景    1
1.1.2我国流动性过剩的国内背景    3
1.2研究意义    4
2流动性过剩的相关概述    5
2.1流动性过剩的定义及测量    5
2.2流动性过剩对国内经济的影响    7
2.2.1资产泡沫的形成和扩大    7
2.2.2通货膨胀压力的增大    7
2.2.3银行信贷规模的增长失衡    7
2.2.4货币政策的独立性降低    8
3关于外汇储备与流动性过剩之间关系的综合分析    9
3.1基于货币冲销的相关理论分析    9
3.2基于中央银行资产负债表的分析    10
3.3基于实证数据的定量分析    12
3.3.1单位根检验    14
3.3.2协整分析    15
3.3.3格兰杰因果检验    17
4我国高额外汇储备的成因分析    19
4.1我国现行外汇管理体制是高额外汇储备形成的制度性因素    19
4.2我国国际收支失衡是外汇储备持续增长的直接原因    19
4.2.1持续高额的贸易顺差导致经常项目顺差的形成    20
4.2.2境外资金流入的增加导致资本与金融项目顺差的形成    21
5解决我国流动性过剩的相关政策调整    23
5.1调整经济发展战略，改革外汇管理制度    23
5.2降低“双顺差”，实现国际收支的基本平衡    23
5.2.1调整我国贸易政策，改变长期经常项目顺差格局    23
5.2.2调整我国外资和汇率政策，减少资本与金融项目顺差    24
5.3改革外汇储备管理体制，优化外汇储备资产结构和币种    25
6结论    27
参考文献    28
附录    30
谢辞    31