石油行业外贸依存度与我国A股市场的关联分析

石油行业外贸依存度与我国A股市场的关联分析
摘     要
石油作为商品市场的代表性商品，其重要的战略地位早以不容忽视。我国石油外贸依存度的增加，也就意味着我国市场对石油这种商品的需求量在逐步增加，国内的生产量已经不能满足国内市场的需求，需要更多的进口来满足市场。一方面，市场进口需求量的增长，有利于我国石油行业各公司原油的销售价格与国际接轨；另一方面，国内石油市场越来越大程度的依赖国际市场，也会给以石油为原材料的塑料、化工、橡胶、化纤等行业的成本带来影响。国际原油价格的变化将对国内市场上的原油价格产生正效应，同时给石油销售行业的效益带来正面影响，给以石油为原材料的行业的效益带来反面影响，进而相应地影响这两类行业在我国A股市场上股票价格变动。若不计其他因素的影响，效益好，股票价格则上涨；效益差，股票价格则下降。

【关键词】石油行业  外贸依存度  我国A股市场  股票价格

Abstract
The petroleum is representative's merchandise of commodity market, its importance of strategy the position early neglect by allow of no.The our country Mao outside the petroleum depend on to save a degree of increment, also mean our country demand of market to petroleum this kind of merchandise at gradually increment, local volume of production already can't satisfy the need of local market, demand more of import to satisfy market.On the one hand, market import demand of growth, be advantageous to the our country petroleum each company of profession crude oil of sale price and nations is in line with;On the other hand, the dependence international market of local more and more great degree of the petroleum market, will also give to take petroleum as the plastics, chemical engineering, rubber of original material and turn Xian's etc.'s cost of the profession to bring influence.International crude oil price of variety will to crude oil price on local market creation positive effect, in the meantime give petroleum sale profession of the performance bring positive influence, give take petroleum as original the performance of the profession of material bring reverse side influence and then correspond ground influence this two types of profession at our country A stock market field top stock price change.If don't account the influence of other factor, performance good, the stock price then soar;The performance is bad and the stock price then descend.

【Key Words】The petroleum ;  Mao outside the profession depend on to save a degree;  The our country AN a market;  Stock price

目  录
1  2001年以来石油行业外贸依存度变动趋势    2
1.1外贸依存度及其意义    2
1.2 2001年以来石油行业外依存度变动情况    2
1.3未来石油对外依存度变动趋势    4
2  石油行业外贸依存度与以原油为销售商品的行业股价变动相关度分析    5
2.1国际原油价格与国内原油价格变化的关系    5
2.2石油行业的外贸依存度变动与中石化的利润变化的关系    6
2.3 石油行业外贸依存度与中石化的股票价格变动情况    8
3  石油行业外贸依存度与以原油为原材料的相关行业股价              变动相关度分析    8
3．1 石油行业外贸依存度对以原油为原材料的相关行业的影响    9
3．2 石油行业外贸依存度与塑料行业股价变动相关度    9
3．3 石油行业外贸依存度与化工行业股价变动相关度    12
3．4 石油行业外贸依存度与橡胶行业股价变动相关度    13
3．5 石油行业外贸依存度与化纤行业股价变动相关度    15
4  小结    16
参考文献    18
致   谢    19